Loading…
Setting realistic targets: past data, seasonality and budget
6 minutes · 8 steps · workout 6 of 6 in this module
What you'll be able to do
By the end of this workout, you'll be able to set a target from a baseline, a seasonality index and the budget you actually have, and defend it against a round number someone picked in a meeting.
A first look: Three inputs: baseline, seasonality, and what will actually change
Baseline: your average over the last 3-6 months, and the same month last year. Seasonality: an index for the month, computed as last year's month ÷ last year's monthly average. Levers: the budget or changes that will move the number, with a realistic lift. Target = baseline × seasonality index × (1 + planned lift). Write down all three, so anyone can see where the number came from. A note on the meeting: the first big round number said out loud anchors everyone (anchoring). Get the baseline on the table before anyone names a target.
Example: Green Garden: baseline $30,000 a month. Last year, May was 1.2× the average (Mother's Day). A new email flow should add about 5%. May target = 30,000 × 1.2 × 1.05 = $37,800.
What this workout covers
- Three inputs: baseline, seasonality, and what will actually change
- Case: Corner Coffee's July target
- Set complete: floor, target, stretch
A question from this workout: Corner Coffee's July target
Corner Coffee's app orders have grown for six months. The owner wants a July target of 1,200. Last year, July orders were 15% below June, because regulars go on vacation. Nothing new is planned for July.
- Jan → Jun app orders
- 800, 780, 900, 950, 1,000, 1,050
- Last year July vs June
- −15%
- New levers planned for July
- None
Which July target is realistic?
- 1,200, continuing the trend
- 1,050, the same as June
- About 900: June × 0.85, since nothing offsets the summer dip
- 1,300, to push the team
Pick your answer first, then open the reasoning below.
Show the answer and the reasoning
Answer: C. About 900: June × 0.85, since nothing offsets the summer dip
1,050 × 0.85 = 892.5, so about 900. The trend is real, but July has a known dip and there's no lever to offset it. Set 900 as the target and note that beating 1,000 would be a genuine win. The most common mistake is the first option: extrapolating the trend and ignoring seasonality. The team would “miss” a July that was actually better than last year's.
The other steps work the same way: you decide first, then see why each option is right or wrong.
How you practice here
- 2 short concept cards
- 1 multiple-choice question
- 1 campaign case with real-looking numbers
- 1 put-in-order exercise
- 2 guided calculations
- 1 recall question from an earlier workout
Part of the module: Marketing Metrics and KPIs
Knowing which numbers really matter: choosing KPIs, unit economics, profitability and setting realistic targets.
More workouts in this module
- Metric or KPI? Numbers tied to a goal
- CAC, LTV and payback period
- ROAS is not enough: profit margin and break-even ROAS
- The North Star metric and the metric tree
- Vanity metrics: the likes and followers trap
Programs that include this workout